The quadruple threat
The world is on the critical crossroads with 4 Cs. The triple toxic situation — climate change, conflicts, COVID has been exacerbated with addition of the fourth C, i.e. Costs. Achieving the SDGs by 2030 has started to appear like a blurred dream
The butterfly effect describes a phenomenon in chaos theory whereby a minor change in circumstances can cause a rippling effect and make a large change in outcome. The butterfly effect resonates with a lot of people because we’re constantly curious about the causes of, well, pretty much everything! An interesting fact! Sophie Chotek, Duchess of Hohenberg, is a name that no one has heard of, but her husband Archduke Franz Ferdinand’s decision to go inspect the army in Bosnia resulted in World War 1. The whole world came crashing down, all because he wanted to drive in an open-top car with his wife to show-off his love for her publicly.
It is fascinating to connect the dots, retrace the minutes before disaster and analyse the event/s that led to it. It is captivating to see how things that may seem trivial in the moment turn out to be that one last screw that was holding everything together. Hindsight is easier than foresight. But imagine, if we were to use the same capability of ‘connecting the dots’ in planning business cases: We would be able to connect issues and opportunities that are not only directly but indirectly linked with the decisions we make. It would lead to inclusive businesses and sustainability, the one thing that we all should strive for.
It should be in our nature to include every place, event, and person that could be affected by that one business investment. It might sound time consuming and complicated but that’s the true sense of sustainability. One investment should result in a very precisely calculated amount of return; this mindset should be outdated. It is oversimplified, the world works in much more intertwined fashion and one business decision can affect multiple layers of a society. Decades of non-inclusive business decisions leading to climate change with social organisations then fighting to redress these changes is an unfortunate waste of energy. The 4 Cs need to be addressed at all levels of the society. Starting from an individual level to businesses and the government. Sincere involvement of each person is the key.
In the last two years the whole world has been going through a stress simulator and that has put our priorities to question. The ripples of decision taken in China to hold back the seriousness of the corona virus quickly drowned the whole world. The COVID crisis laid bare the world’s economic structures with all their shortcomings. While impacts of the pandemic were profound, none of the problems revealed were new. The pandemic merely propelled them into the limelight. We realised that we were blindsided by the industrial profits and ignored vital services like health and technology. As per WFP, as many as 828 million people go to bed hungry every night, the number of those facing acute food insecurity has soared — from 135 million to 345 million — since 2019. Additionally, supply chain disruptions due to COVID-19 and increased consumer demand for food drastically raised food prices across the globe.
Another added challenge to our global health and food security has been the climate shocks. Sudden cataclysmic disasters such as, tsunamis, hurricanes, and floods cause devastation on impact. Slow-onset disasters such as droughts inflict persistent damage over time. Here are some staggering numbers! Droughts have been rising due to global warming leading to vanishing water resources. Somalia, Zimbabwe, Djibouti, Mauritania, and South Africa are among the countries with the highest drought risk. In 2021 declining grain production and consequent financial losses has impacted 2.3 billion people. Weather catastrophes caused economic losses of 329 billion U.S. dollars worldwide in 2021. As per the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) report in 2021, there has been a rise (29%) in the number and extent of droughts. It has been the most frequent natural disaster affecting humans worldwide, after floods. It reduced the gross domestic product in India by 2% to 5%. And has reduced agricultural production by 18% in Australia since 2000. These climate shocks are destroying lives crops and livelihoods and pushing food-insecurity to excruciating levels.
As if that wasn’t daunting enough, this year Russia’s decision to declare war against Ukraine has sent the world economy into a downward spiral. The Conflict has disrupted almost a third of the world’s wheat market, worsening a food-security crisis already exacerbated by COVID-19. Another challenge to be talked about is our “overdependency” on certain countries. War on Ukraine alone has been able to disrupt regular production of grains and oil and contributed to record world food prices. I see a similar trend when it comes to manufacturing in China or the far east. Or over-dependency on Australia and Chile for lithium reserves and production. Another essential mineral used for battery production is cobalt. 70% of world’s cobalt is produced in Congo (DRC). Examples are many and we pay much higher costs when these dependencies are breached as compared to the costs we save.
The cost of reaching people in need is rising. Additionally, the number of people needing humanitarian help has increased significantly. The cost of food has increased up to 35–40%. Economic losses that we are facing are sky rocketing. It does not stop at that, the humanitarian cost that we are paying cannot be simply put into numbers. With limited funding for admin costs and stuck in the starvation cycle, Non-profits are in crisis themselves. At this point NGOs are already working until the last penny. The compounded effect of the 4 Cs and the boost in the costs is going to bring them to the breaking point.
A global crisis requires a global response
The pandemic revealed our interdependence and the importance of collaboration. To address long term impacts of the pandemic, climate crisis and conflict, more Interwoven “Glocal” initiatives are required. Instead of looking at NGOs as a “third” sector, the businesses should rather look at them as partners. Governments should see them as extended arms. This will make sure that already existing problems such as environmental degradation and social inequality are not amplified. The NGOs ideally should work as a balancing platform making sure that the other sectors have been inclusive.
When it comes to sustainability, there are three main stakeholders, businesses, we as individuals or families and the government. When it comes to materialistic usage all three stakeholders need a huge mindset shift. To achieve sustainability, it is important to ask these three questions every time we are buying a product. “Where does it come from?” This is where businesses play a role. Is the product truly green? Has business has been able to honestly keep the bare minimum carbon footprint and if they supported equity in its production. The second question is “What am I going to do with it?”. This is where we as individuals play a role, we need to make sure that we are following the three R’s of sustainability i.e. Reduce, Reuse and Recycle. Thereafter appropriately disposing it, so it does not end in landfills and oceans. The third question is “Where will it go?”. This is where the governments play a role. After a material is disposed off there should be adequate planning an execution of sorting, collecting and recycling/disposal. This includes everything from provision of different bins to proving subsidies to recycling businesses. If this system does not work uninterrupted like a cogwheel, attaining circularity will be impossible.
Countries coming together and discussing these issues like in the recent G7 meeting is extremely important. However, their announcement of investing $4.5 billion dollar to fight global food insecurity, seems like another hasty short-term decision. Decisions like this start the chain reaction of many following unsustainable decisions.
“From our point of view, the money is not enough, after all, over 300 million people are currently suffering from acute hunger. A total of 14 billion additional dollars are needed every year until 2030”. The secretary general of Welthungerhilfe Mathias Mogge.
Whether the crisis is intended (war) or unintended (natural calamities), people that suffer the most are the ones who survive on 1.90 $ a day and they had the least to do with the cause of it. Of them women and children are the most vulnerable. The blurred reality in the shadow of all the statistics is that what costs us our money costs them their lives. Without immediate assistance, trends will continue, with climate shocks, violent conflict, and global health challenges driving food commodity prices to their highest levels ever. The butterfly effect of an egoistic decision let it be from a country or a business can destroy the lives and future of many little children in other parts of the world.
